I keep revisiting this episode we recorded at Thinkers50, every time I listen I take away a different nugget. Thank you Sangeet Paul Choudary, Howard Yu and Alexander Osterwalder.
Howard highlighted this pattern we see time and time again.
The organisational belief that transformation comes after a long analysis, followed by one decisive gamble that somehow carries the organisation into the future. It has almost no connection to how real breakthroughs actually happen.
It reminds me of Charles Conn’s staircase concept from his book “The Imperfectionists”. You iterate towards success.
Howard reminds us that Steve Jobs nearly shut down the iPhone three times before it ever reached a consumer’s hand. Alexa only emerged because Amazon’s Fire Phone had collapsed. Progress came from a trail of attempts that left behind a bed of capabilities strong enough to support the next move.
In my book, “Undisruptable”, I call it RoC, return on capabilities.
Products fail, but capabilities compound.
Howard brought the conversation into the present by pointing to Meta. The metaverse may not have played out as expected, but the hardware capabilities built along the way are now visible in something like a pair of Ray-Bans. You don’t always know which strand will matter later, but if you stop stacking capabilities, you guarantee a future that looks exactly like your past.
The key is to build capabilities before you need them. The more you sweat in times of peace, the less you bleed in war.
Full episode:
Charles Conn full episode:
